Tuesday, February 7, 2012

An Early Look at Major League Baseball: The AL East



With pitchers and catchers reporting the weekend of February 17th, one can only be excited for what is to come in the upcoming baseball season.  In celebration of the countdown to Spring Training, I will be breaking down each of Major League Baseball's divisions.  With all the crazy offseason moves that teams have made, divisions will be shaken up to the point that baseball's powers will shift.  I will give insight as to where each team will finish in their respected divisions as well as the keys to their success and what could cause their demise. I will also provide potential All Stars for each team.  First off, I will discuss perhaps baseball's toughest division: the American League East.  

1. New York Yankees

The Yankees will finish first in the division largely in part of their payroll, as always.  They can consistently field a team full of star power as well as players who consistently contribute.  The Yankees will get it done this year because of the latest offseason moves that they have pulled off.  Switching Jesus Montero, a stud catching prospect, for Michael Pineda from the Mariners, will prove to be baseball's most worthy investment.  The Hiroki Kuroda pickup is definitely solid, but nothing will outdo the move for Pineda.  He's a quality young pitcher that uses his height and arm angles to his advantage to dominate batters.  Sure, you can say what about Pujols and Fielder?   They will produce for their teams, absolutely, but there will not be a move that would prove to fill such a void in the Yankees roster.  Last year, New York lacked quality depth in their pitching rotation.  Outside of C.C. Sabathia and Ivan Nova, the Yankees' did not have a consistent third, fourth, or fifth quality starter.  With Pineda and Kuroda moving in, the last spot will be a battle between Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, and A.J. Burnett, not a bad competition to have by any means, given the past success these guys have had and are looking to get back to.  

Key to Success - Pitching rotation depth coupled with a high octane batting order will lead to plenty of wins.  Guys like Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Derek Jeter will lead the offense to top numbers that New York has been familiar with in the past.  Using the short porch in right field, the Yankees will continue to hit for power and drive runs in.

Reason to Panic - Issues are present in the bullpen.  Outside of Nate Robertson and Mariano Rivera, New York did not have solid bullpen pitching last year.  Questions still remain about Rafael Soriano's health, Joba Chamberlain has vanished, and whoever loses out on the fifth spot in the rotation has not be proven to be effective with a role in the bullpen.


All Stars - Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, C.C. Sabathia


2. Tampa Bay Rays -

The Rays will take (as of now) "the" Wild Card spot in the American League.  They will be building off the momentum created last year with the epic run to the playoffs with Boston's collapse.  Tampa addressed a few holes in their team this year as well but definitely flew more under the radar than the Angels, Tigers, and the Yankees.  They added the likes of Carlos Pena, rejoining the team after a year with the Cubs,  Luke Scott from the Orioles after a few down years up north, and Fernando Rodney who has had it rough in the past few years.  The Rays got each of these guys at a discount if they end up producing to their potential.  Both Pena and Scott are high power, low to mid average, high OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) kind of guys.  Rodney could be valuable if he can learn to control his velocity and get the ball down in the zone.  Also joining the Rays and competing to make the roster is Jeff Keppinger.  He could prove to be a worthy pickup with consistent play.  

We are all still waiting on B.J. Upton to finally show up while Longoria continues to carry this team offensively.   Also, the Rays have the best rotation in baseball, bar none.  A staff that has Shields, Price, Hellickson, Davis and Niemann is bound to do great things.  If they unload any of these guys, the staff will be fine as Tampa has ample talent waiting to fill the void with Matt Moore and Alex Cobb.  

Key to Success - Maddon-ball: playing defense while working to get on base.  Seems like it doesn' t matter who Maddon has in the lineup; the Rays get on base, score runs, and pitch their way to wins.  With the best staff in baseball along with the additions on offense, the Rays come close to the Division title.

Reason to Panic - Tampa has built a pretty solid team by the bay but the bullpen could ultimately lead to their demise.  Many of these guys are still young and will face bumps in the road, but its how they respond that will be the difference.  Guys like Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta will provide the experience needed down the stretch and will help to build confidence for Jake McGee, Cesar Ramos, and new pitcher Burke Badenhop.


All Stars - Evan Longoria, James Shields, David Price



3. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox will make a strong run at the Wild Card and it will come down to the last 5 or 6 games.  The last playoff spot will be decided between Texas, Boston, and Tampa Bay.  As mentioned earlier, the Rays capitalized on Boston's late season collapse last season.  Boston went into the offseason  trying to remove the cloud hanging over their heads since then.  Terry Francona and Theo Epstein are no longer with the team after Epstein took a job with the Chicago Cubs and Francona left (mutual? meh).  Boston then filled the vacancies with General Manager Ben Cherington (internal hire) and Bobby Valentine (ex-Met manager, former ESPN analyst) as skipper. The Red Sox did manage to grab Kelly Shoppach  from the Rays, Andrew Bailey from the Athletics, and Cody Ross from the Giants in a few free agency moves.  They traded shortstop Jed Lowrie for relief pitcher Mark Melancon, which should help bolster the bullpen.  The starting rotation could use work.  Led by Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the rotation had a lackluster 2011 season.  Boston has since moved Daniel Bard from the pen and plugged him into the rotation.  This experiment could backfire as Bard has never been in such a role.  

The offense should lead the majors in pretty much every statistical category because they still have Adrian Gonzalez anchoring the middle of the lineup, David Ortiz's power, Dustin Pedroia's consistency, and Jacoby Ellsbury's versatility on the basepaths.  Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis are looking to have rebound years, and if they do come back, it only means trouble for the rest of the league.  The offense goes as injury goes.  

Keys to Success - Whether or not Crawford and Youkilis can come back to their old forms and produce at a consistent level.  Without them, the offense should not struggle as a collective unit, however, they would put it over the top.  The bullpen could also be a strength of the Red Sox with the acquisitions of Melancon and Bailey coupled with Alfredo Aceves, but will miss the strength of Bard and the closing of Jonathan Papelbon (left for free agency).

Reason to Panic - If Boston were to struggle, it would be because of the starting rotation, which they also struggled with in 2011.  John Lackey and Tim Wakefield led the way in poor starts last year, so if they continue to struggle, Boston will have issues.  If the rotation can keep it together, Boston will be a strong force to be reckoned with in the entire league, let alone the AL East.  It will ultimately hold them back though.




All Stars - Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Jon Lester



4. Toronto Blue Jays


Yet again, the Blue Jays will finish fourth.  Yet again, the Blue Jays go into the offseason with the attitude that next year is the year.  Yet again, the Blue Jays really have nothing else going for them except for Jose' Bautista.  They do have a hot young prospect at third base, Brett Lawrie, who has seen limited plate appearances (injury) and excelled.  However, his long term success will be determined this year when he has a full season under his belt.  Toronto did pick up Francisco Cordero, Sergio Santos, and Darren Oliver to strengthen the bullpen but have not done much to add to their rotation and their lineup.  The rotation has shown flashes of brilliance with Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow but anything beyond these two guys was obsolete.  With Bautista anchoring the lineup, the Jays failed to give him better protection than Adam Lind and Colby Rasmus.  Lawrie could make a difference if he produces like he did when he was called up last season (.293, 9 HR, 25 RBI in 161 PA).  They were said to be interested in Prince Fielder but did not make any moves to add him.  The Jays will finish fourth in the division largely in part of their lack of execution in the offseason.  


Keys to Success - The offense.  Plain and simple: the offense.  If this offense can get a lead for this young rotation, the bullpen should be able to maintain.  The offense needs to be able to string together at-bats in order to drive people in and not rely on Bautista's power to bail them out.  If the Blue Jays can manage to be potent enough in scoring runs, they will be largely successful in this division.


Reason to Panic - Toronto will struggle with their rotation just as they have in years past.  The rotation is made up younger guys who show flashes of excellence but haven't really put it all together yet.  The Jays could really implode if the rotation shows its youth.  


All Stars - Jose Bautista, Francisco Cordero




5. Baltimore Orioles


Even with Buck Showalter leading the show in Baltimore, the O's don't get anywhere in the division, yet again.  They are still waiting for Matt Weiters to break out, Brian Roberts to return to form, and Adam Jones to get his power stroke.  As with the Jays, many of the Orioles show flashes of brilliance only to fade into the (lack of) depth of Camden Yards.  The Orioles just shipped off Jeremie Guthrie who proved to be the most experienced starting pitcher on the team, a move that has Baltimore up in arms.  A man who lost over fifteen games last year and had only five/six wins is considered a fan favorite?  Just goes to show you where Baltimore is at right now with their squad.  They are waiting for their young arms to blossom and when they do, Baltimore can at least play spoiler.  Until then, Baltimore has a lot of needs to address and their farm system isn't getting it done and neither is the front office.  You cannot field a team of washed up veterans (Vladimir Guerrero, left for free agency) with guys fresh out of Triple-A and expect to win, regardless of the skipper.  They won't get far this year, or next, and probably the next until upper brass decides to spend a little money.


Keys to Success - The outbreak of Adam Jones and Matt Wieters.  If these two guys can jumpstart the offense and show what they are capable of, Baltimore will finally have somewhat of an edge when it comes to opposing pitchers.  Jones should finally prove that he is a five tool outfielder and provide some excitement in Baltimore.


Reason to Panic - Pitching.  This team's lack of quality pitching is evident across the board.  It has been a problem of the past and will continue to be one until the farm system develops quality (cough) or the front office goes after some guys via free agency/trades.  


All Stars - Adam Jones

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