An Early Look at Major League Baseball: The NL East

Continuing with our early analysis of Major League Baseball's 2012 season, we will take a look at the newly rejuvenated National League East.  Of baseball's six divisions, the NL East has recently become baseball's most storied division with Philadelphia's success, Atlanta's uprising, Miami's offseason, Washington's youth, and New York's struggles.  We will take a look at how each of these teams will look in the upcoming season.


1. Philadelphia Phillies - 


The Phillies will finish first in the division, yet again.  They went after a few key guys in the offseason while losing a few as well.  Leaving the Phils was Brad Lidge (who hasn't done much in the last year and a half), Ryan Madson, and Raul Ibanez.  They brought in Jonathan Papelbon, Ty Wigginton, and Jim Thome.  There is definitely more leaving than there is coming in.  Ibanez gave them 20+ HR and 80+ RBI on average his three years in Philadelphia.  He went for 34 HR and 93 RBI back in 2009.  The biggest addition, however, came late last season when the team obtained Hunter Pence from the Astros through trade.  During the offseason, Pence and the Phillies avoided arbitration and worked out a deal to stay.  In his 54 games with the squad, he batted .324 with 11 HR, 35 RBI, quite some production.  


Chase Utley is looking to return from injury after a less than stellar 2011 season.  He missed quite some time due to a concussion amongst other injuries.  His production has declined each of the last two seasons as he has dealt with injury.  He is looking to regain his form and once again pair with Ryan Howard in the middle of  the lineup.  


The pitching rotation did lose Roy Oswalt to free agency, but Joe Blanton and Vance Worley are more than capable of providing consistent quality starts.  Worley would have won Rookie of the Year honors if it were not for Braves' closer, Craig Kimbrel, getting the nod instead.  Worley posted ridiculous numbers his first year in the bigs, helped in large by the offense, but is capable of doing it again.  Cliff Lee was strong last year and is looking to return to the same as he joins Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels to round out the staff, arguably one of the best in baseball, if not the best (see Tampa Bay Rays).


Keys to Success - Chase Utley needs to be able to stay healthy to lead the way.  The rest of the offense is potent enough to carry the team, but with Utley's leadership, the offense can be taken to another level.  With the offense scoring runs, the rotation should have plenty of support to win games.


Reason to Panic - The Phillies addressed their need for a closer in Papelbon, but did not do much else to provide bullpen depth.  It still remains a mystery how well this unit will do, but Philadelphia is lucky to have such a strong rotation that can go the distance if necessary.

All Stars - Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels


2. Atlanta Braves -


The Braves will finish 2nd in the division but they will make a huge late season push for the division title.  The Braves were not an active player in free agency this offseason, only picking up Adam Russell, former Tampa Bay Rays reliever.  He will be thrown into a pen that already has proven to be consistent enough to win games.  The bullpen will be anchored by NL Rookie of the Year, Craig Kimbrel.  He had a dazzling rookie campaign compiling over 40 saves with a 2.10 ERA.  The bullpen should be able to hold its own when games are turned over to them. 


Atlanta's starting rotation is phenomenal.  Led by veteran Tim Hudson, the rotation should be what holds this team together.  The team did lose Derek Lowe to free agency, but the Braves have the youth to step in and fill that void.  Each starter is fully capable of winning 15 games this season.  Very unlikely, but it can be done, each guy has the stuff to do so.  Brandon Beachy is due to break out this year, Tommy Hansen has apparently altered his delivery to prevent injury, and Jair Jurrjens is looking to repeat his success from last season.  However, all four of these guys went down with some sort of injury last year.  If this rotation can stay healthy, Philadelphia better watch out.


The lineup is as potent as ever, pending injury.  Chipper Jones can still supply a prominent bat when he's healthy.  He has been dealing with knee surgeries the past two years, but claims he is not done playing.  Jason Heyward, Atlanta's budding young star, was fighting shoulder issues for most of last season.  If these two guys can return to form, the lineup with Dan Uggla, Martin Prado, and Brian McCann, will be a force to be reckoned with.


Keys to Success - Pitching will be the key this year.  As long as the starters can stay healthy, Atlanta should have no issues at all keeping up with Philadelphia.  The offense is potent enough to provide solid run support, no issues there.  Once the game is handed to their closer, Kimbrel, it is lights out, game over.  If they can get to situations where they can hand the ball to Kimbrel to preserve leads, Atlanta will win a lot of games.


Reason to Panic - Injuries have plagued the Braves for the last few seasons.  It will play a major part again this season as Chipper and Heyward are both working their way back from their injuries.  If players start going down in similar fashion to last year and the year prior, Atlanta will have a tough time getting anywhere in this division. 


All-Stars - Craig Kimbrel, Brandon Beachy, Jason Heyward


3. Miami Marlins -


So, who didn't the Marlins sign this offseason? All jokes aside, Miami has made a huge push to bring in revenue for all the money they've spent.  Whether it was spent on a brand new stadium, a new manager, or several premium players, the Marlins spent a lot of money to attract attention to South Beach for something other than basketball and football.  A lot of attention has been put on the Miami Heat and Dolphins, but the Marlins are now relevant in Miami.  


Ozzie Guillen was brought in to manage the club.  With him he brings a wealth of experience getting to the postseason and even winning.  This alone should show the direction this team is heading.  The signing of Jose Reyes brings the offense and defense to an entirely new level.  They are bringing in contact and speed on the basepaths, as well as defensive flash.  It was noted that Reyes has lost some of his range, but he should look rejuvenated enough to give Miami a consistent glove on the infield.  The Marlins also have Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, and Logan Morrison to provide some pop to the middle of their lineup, however, it will be interesting to see how the new park affects that power.


The Marlins have also brought in three key pitchers in Mark Buehrle, Carlos Zambrano, and monster closer Heath Bell.  This significantly improves their team pitching.  Coupled with Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez, Zambrano and Buehrle could provide the depth in the rotation that they have been missing.  Bell gives them the backend bullpen strength that could prove to have more of an impact on their season.  


Keys to Success - Their lineup.  You can put Hanley Ramirez in the number 3 spot when you have a guy like Jose Reyes batting leadoff, and good things are bound to happen.  However, the key is power.  Can the Marlins put up good power numbers in their new park? Its been said that the new park favors pitchers.  There is enough speed here for sure, but it will be up to the power guys to drive them in.


Reason to Panic - Ego.  The Marlins' demise could be all the personalities that they have in the clubhouse.  For starters, Ozzie Guillen, has a personality all his own. Hanley Ramirez has already played diva, hinting that he would not want to move to third base.  Carlos Zambrano has had a myriad of character issues in his time with the Chicago Cubs.  


All-Stars - Hanley Ramirez, Heath Bell, Mike Stanton


4. Washington Nationals - 

The Nationals will continue their youth movement as they get stud pitcher, Stephen Strasburg, back from surgery.  We will see how effective he can be coming back after almost missing the entire 2011 season.  The Nationals added Gio Gonzalez from Oakland, but besides that have really done nothing else to bolster their rotation or bullpen.  The bullpen will still have Tyler Clippard who for the last two seasons has been an excellent setup man.  Last season, he posted a sub-2 ERA in just over 88 innings pitched, a superb season by any means.  If the Nationals can continue to build around these young arms, they will be relevant in the NL East for years to come.


Speaking of youth, the Nationals have perhaps the best prospect in all the land in Bryce Harper.  There have been personality and character issues, but if Washington can allow him to mature (he's only 19), they shouldn't have any issues down the road.  He has a potent bat, one that has been crushing home runs at the major league level since he was in his early teens.  It has been up the air as to whether he will get called up this season to join the Nationals' lineup, but if he does it will make their lineup that much stronger.  The lineup already includes guys like Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Adam Laroche.  Each of these guys have been struggling as of late, but they are looking to turn their fortunes around.  


Keys to Success - The Nationals' offense must get it going, and get it going early in games.  The rotation and the bullpen will struggle, but if they score enough runs to outweigh the difficulties that their pitching will have, they should be fine.  It is up to guys like Werth and Zimmerman to get the offense going and play the veteran role that Washington needs.


Reason to Panic - The only real reason to panic would be if these young guys that Washington has invested so much in, end up failing their projections.  Strasburg and Harper have been two of the most exciting prospects in the last 5 years, and the sky is the limit for these two.  However, if injuries persist for Strasburg and Harper just completely tanks, the Nationals will have a reason to panic, but more for the long term future.


All-Stars - Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman


5. New York Mets - 


The Mets finish last in their division due to their massive budget overhaul, opposite of their New York counterparts.  They have cut costs all across the board, losing Angel Pagan and Jose Reyes, two key players in their offense.  They did bring in several players, but none that will help them in this division.  Jon Rauch might ultimately be the most significant acquisition for the Mets in the offseason, and he may not even be a difference maker.  The Mets are getting Johan Santana back from injuries and surgeries, David Wright is looking for a rebound year, and Ike Davis is looking to blossom into what he is supposed to be.  


Buster Olney, ESPN's senior baseball analyst, tweeted not too long ago that the Mets payroll stood at about $87.5 million with Jason Bay, Johan Santana, and David Wright making up $57.5 million, or about 65% of the payroll.  How are the Mets supposed to go after other guys in free agency when you have 3 guys making up most of their payroll?  They've invested too much for players that haven't lived up to their contracts.   Santana hasn't pitched a game in over a year.  Wright missed 60 games last season.  Jason Bay hasn't been the same since he left Boston two seasons ago.  The Mets simply could not afford to go after anyone significant in the offseason and could end up paying the price for it (aka $57.5 million for three potential injury-laden seasons).


Keys to Success - Specifically, it comes down to those 3 players carrying this team.  The Mets have an average bullpen, a somewhat maybe above-average rotation with Santana, and what could be a potent lineup with Wright and Bay in the middle of it.  These 3 guys produce, they could play a part in the division.


Reason to Panic - The fact that those 3 players tie up so much payroll ultimate cost the Mets a chance at getting anyone that would increase the likelihood of winning this season.  If those guys go down, the season goes down.  It will be interesting to see which direction the Mets go this year.  


All-Stars - David Wright, Ike Davis

An Early Look at Major League Baseball: The AL East

With pitchers and catchers reporting the weekend of February 17th, one can only be excited for what is to come in the upcoming baseball season.  In celebration of the countdown to Spring Training, I will be breaking down each of Major League Baseball's divisions.  With all the crazy offseason moves that teams have made, divisions will be shaken up to the point that baseball's powers will shift.  I will give insight as to where each team will finish in their respected divisions as well as the keys to their success and what could cause their demise. I will also provide potential All Stars for each team.  First off, I will discuss perhaps baseball's toughest division: the American League East.  

1. New York Yankees - 

The Yankees will finish first in the division largely in part of their payroll, as always.  They can consistently field a team full of star power as well as players who consistently contribute.  The Yankees will get it done this year because of the latest offseason moves that they have pulled off.  Switching Jesus Montero, a stud catching prospect, for Michael Pineda from the Mariners, will prove to be baseball's most worthy investment.  The Hiroki Kuroda pickup is definitely solid, but nothing will outdo the move for Pineda.  He's a quality young pitcher that uses his height and arm angles to his advantage to dominate batters.  Sure, you can say what about Pujols and Fielder?   They will produce for their teams, absolutely, but there will not be a move that would prove to fill such a void in the Yankees roster.  Last year, New York lacked quality depth in their pitching rotation.  Outside of C.C. Sabathia and Ivan Nova, the Yankees' did not have a consistent third, fourth, or fifth quality starter.  With Pineda and Kuroda moving in, the last spot will be a battle between Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, and A.J. Burnett, not a bad competition to have by any means, given the past success these guys have had and are looking to get back to.  

Key to Success - Pitching rotation depth coupled with a high octane batting order will lead to plenty of wins.  Guys like Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Derek Jeter will lead the offense to top numbers that New York has been familiar with in the past.  Using the short porch in right field, the Yankees will continue to hit for power and drive runs in.

Reason to Panic - Issues are present in the bullpen.  Outside of Nate Robertson and Mariano Rivera, New York did not have solid bullpen pitching last year.  Questions still remain about Rafael Soriano's health, Joba Chamberlain has vanished, and whoever loses out on the fifth spot in the rotation has not be proven to be effective with a role in the bullpen.


All Stars - Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, C.C. Sabathia

2. Tampa Bay Rays -

The Rays will take (as of now) "the" Wild Card spot in the American League.  They will be building off the momentum created last year with the epic run to the playoffs with Boston's collapse.  Tampa addressed a few holes in their team this year as well but definitely flew more under the radar than the Angels, Tigers, and the Yankees.  They added the likes of Carlos Pena, rejoining the team after a year with the Cubs,  Luke Scott from the Orioles after a few down years up north, and Fernando Rodney who has had it rough in the past few years.  The Rays got each of these guys at a discount if they end up producing to their potential.  Both Pena and Scott are high power, low to mid average, high OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) kind of guys.  Rodney could be valuable if he can learn to control his velocity and get the ball down in the zone.  Also joining the Rays and competing to make the roster is Jeff Keppinger.  He could prove to be a worthy pickup with consistent play.  

We are all still waiting on B.J. Upton to finally show up while Longoria continues to carry this team offensively.   Also, the Rays have the best rotation in baseball, bar none.  A staff that has Shields, Price, Hellickson, Davis and Niemann is bound to do great things.  If they unload any of these guys, the staff will be fine as Tampa has ample talent waiting to fill the void with Matt Moore and Alex Cobb.  

Key to Success - Maddon-ball: playing defense while working to get on base.  Seems like it doesn' t matter who Maddon has in the lineup; the Rays get on base, score runs, and pitch their way to wins.  With the best staff in baseball along with the additions on offense, the Rays come close to the Division title.

Reason to Panic - Tampa has built a pretty solid team by the bay but the bullpen could ultimately lead to their demise.  Many of these guys are still young and will face bumps in the road, but its how they respond that will be the difference.  Guys like Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta will provide the experience needed down the stretch and will help to build confidence for Jake McGee, Cesar Ramos, and new pitcher Burke Badenhop.

All Stars - Evan Longoria, James Shields, David Price

3. Boston Red Sox - 

The Red Sox will make a strong run at the Wild Card and it will come down to the last 5 or 6 games.  The last playoff spot will be decided between Texas, Boston, and Tampa Bay.  As mentioned earlier, the Rays capitalized on Boston's late season collapse last season.  Boston went into the offseason  trying to remove the cloud hanging over their heads since then.  Terry Francona and Theo Epstein are no longer with the team after Epstein took a job with the Chicago Cubs and Francona left (mutual? meh).  Boston then filled the vacancies with General Manager Ben Cherington (internal hire) and Bobby Valentine (ex-Met manager, former ESPN analyst) as skipper. The Red Sox did manage to grab Kelly Shoppach  from the Rays, Andrew Bailey from the Athletics, and Cody Ross from the Giants in a few free agency moves.  They traded shortstop Jed Lowrie for relief pitcher Mark Melancon, which should help bolster the bullpen.  The starting rotation could use work.  Led by Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the rotation had a lackluster 2011 season.  Boston has since moved Daniel Bard from the pen and plugged him into the rotation.  This experiment could backfire as Bard has never been in such a role.  

The offense should lead the majors in pretty much every statistical category because they still have Adrian Gonzalez anchoring the middle of the lineup, David Ortiz's power, Dustin Pedroia's consistency, and Jacoby Ellsbury's versatility on the basepaths.  Carl Crawford and Kevin Youkilis are looking to have rebound years, and if they do come back, it only means trouble for the rest of the league.  The offense goes as injury goes.  

Keys to Success - Whether or not Crawford and Youkilis can come back to their old forms and produce at a consistent level.  Without them, the offense should not struggle as a collective unit, however, they would put it over the top.  The bullpen could also be a strength of the Red Sox with the acquisitions of Melancon and Bailey coupled with Alfredo Aceves, but will miss the strength of Bard and the closing of Jonathan Papelbon (left for free agency).

Reason to Panic - If Boston were to struggle, it would be because of the starting rotation, which they also struggled with in 2011.  John Lackey and Tim Wakefield led the way in poor starts last year, so if they continue to struggle, Boston will have issues.  If the rotation can keep it together, Boston will be a strong force to be reckoned with in the entire league, let alone the AL East.  It will ultimately hold them back though.

All Stars - Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Jon Lester

4. Toronto Blue Jays - 


Yet again, the Blue Jays will finish fourth.  Yet again, the Blue Jays go into the offseason with the attitude that next year is the year.  Yet again, the Blue Jays really have nothing else going for them except for Jose' Bautista.  They do have a hot young prospect at third base, Brett Lawrie, who has seen limited plate appearances (injury) and excelled.  However, his long term success will be determined this year when he has a full season under his belt.  Toronto did pick up Francisco Cordero, Sergio Santos, and Darren Oliver to strengthen the bullpen but have not done much to add to their rotation and their lineup.  The rotation has shown flashes of brilliance with Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow but anything beyond these two guys was obsolete.  With Bautista anchoring the lineup, the Jays failed to give him better protection than Adam Lind and Colby Rasmus.  Lawrie could make a difference if he produces like he did when he was called up last season (.293, 9 HR, 25 RBI in 161 PA).  They were said to be interested in Prince Fielder but did not make any moves to add him.  The Jays will finish fourth in the division largely in part of their lack of execution in the offseason.  


Keys to Success - The offense.  Plain and simple: the offense.  If this offense can get a lead for this young rotation, the bullpen should be able to maintain.  The offense needs to be able to string together at-bats in order to drive people in and not rely on Bautista's power to bail them out.  If the Blue Jays can manage to be potent enough in scoring runs, they will be largely successful in this division.


Reason to Panic - Toronto will struggle with their rotation just as they have in years past.  The rotation is made up younger guys who show flashes of excellence but haven't really put it all together yet.  The Jays could really implode if the rotation shows its youth.  

All Stars - Jose Bautista, Francisco Cordero




5. Baltimore Orioles - 


Even with Buck Showalter leading the show in Baltimore, the O's don't get anywhere in the division, yet again.  They are still waiting for Matt Weiters to break out, Brian Roberts to return to form, and Adam Jones to get his power stroke.  As with the Jays, many of the Orioles show flashes of brilliance only to fade into the (lack of) depth of Camden Yards.  The Orioles just shipped off Jeremie Guthrie who proved to be the most experienced starting pitcher on the team, a move that has Baltimore up in arms.  A man who lost over fifteen games last year and had only five/six wins is considered a fan favorite?  Just goes to show you where Baltimore is at right now with their squad.  They are waiting for their young arms to blossom and when they do, Baltimore can at least play spoiler.  Until then, Baltimore has a lot of needs to address and their farm system isn't getting it done and neither is the front office.  You cannot field a team of washed up veterans (Vladimir Guerrero, left for free agency) with guys fresh out of Triple-A and expect to win, regardless of the skipper.  They won't get far this year, or next, and probably the next until upper brass decides to spend a little money.


Keys to Success - The outbreak of Adam Jones and Matt Wieters.  If these two guys can jumpstart the offense and show what they are capable of, Baltimore will finally have somewhat of an edge when it comes to opposing pitchers.  Jones should finally prove that he is a five tool outfielder and provide some excitement in Baltimore.


Reason to Panic - Pitching.  This team's lack of quality pitching is evident across the board.  It has been a problem of the past and will continue to be one until the farm system develops quality (cough) or the front office goes after some guys via free agency/trades.  


All Stars - Adam Jones